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| − | = The Origin of the 12 Year Timeline =
| + | [[Category:Resilience]] |
| − | The 12 years in which we have to act started in October 2018. From Inside Climate News Aug 27, 2019
| + | === Deep Adaptation === |
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| − | [https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27082019/12-years-climate-change-explained-ipcc-science-solutions What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change' (Now 11 Years) Really Mean?] | |
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| − | ''“The number began drawing attention in 2018, when the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report describing what it would take to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris climate agreement. The report explained that countries would have to cut their anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, such as from power plants and vehicles, to net zero by around 2050. To reach that goal, it said, CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions would have to start dropping "well before 2030" and be on a path to fall by about 45 percent by around 2030 (12 years away at that time).”''
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| − | = Resilience Proposals = | |
| | Read the paper: | | Read the paper: |
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| − | [http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf “Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy”] – Jem Bendell – an occasional paper from the Institute of Leadership and Sustainability (IFLAS) at the University of Cumbria, UK – July 2018. Prof. Bendell raises the specter of how to adapt… | + | : [http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf “Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy”] – Prof. Jem Bendell – an occasional paper from the Institute of Leadership and Sustainability (IFLAS) at the University of Cumbria, UK – July 2018. |
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| − | ''“the deep adaptation agenda of resilience, relinquishment and restoration can be a useful framework for community dialogue in the face of climate change. Resilience asks us “how do we keep what we really want to keep?” Relinquishment asks us “what do we need to let go of in order to not make matters worse?” Restoration asks us “what can we bring back to help us with the coming difficulties and tragedies?”''
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| − | = Project Drawdown and Available Technology =
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| − | “The 100 most substantive solutions to reverse global warming, based on meticulous research by leading scientists and policymakers around the world“
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| − | [https://www.drawdown.org/the-book “Drawdown][https://www.drawdown.org/the-book : The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming]
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| − | [https://www.drawdown.org/the-book ”] – ed Paul Hawken – Penguin Books – Apr 2017 ★
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| − | But how we manage investments has an effect too. see:
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| − | [https://www.greenbiz.com/article/did-project-drawdown-miss-crucial-climate-solution Did Project Drawdown miss a crucial climate solution?] – GreenBiz, Sasja Beslik – March 2018
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| − | Jedediah Purdue in his book “This Land is Our Land: The Struggle for a New Commonwealth” - Princeton University Press – Sept 2019, see: [https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691195643/this-land-is-our-land https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691195643/this-land-is-our-land]
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| − | = Clean Disruption & Cost Curves =
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| − | YouTube presentation by Tony Soba presented by the [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCr81EUb2qVJVfmmlJMxEHVw Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES)] shows how cost curves will drive transition to EV and solar power + storage for most energy needs.
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| − | [https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0 https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0]
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| − | Published on Jun 9, 2017
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| − | Stanford University futurist ''Tony Seba'' spent the last decades studying technological disruptions. He argues that the Electric Vehicle, battery storage, and solar power, along with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process which will wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade. TonySeba.com – RethinkX.com
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| − | He is the author of several books, including most recently “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030”, and “Solar Trillions: 7 Market and Investment Opportunities in the Emerging Clean-Energy Economy”
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| − | Tony Soba spoke in Boulder, Colorado, where he was awarded the 2017 Sunshine Award by Clean Energy Action [https://cleanenergyaction.org https://cleanenergyaction.org].
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| − | = Effecting Social Change =
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| − | == Succeeding Social Movements ==
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| − | Making a change isn’t easy, so understanding important factors as described in:
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| − | [https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36702895-how-change-happens How Change Happens – Why Some Social Movements Succeed While Others Don’t] – Leslie Crutchfield, Wiley, 2018.'' ''can be important. Briefly the six factors are:
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| − | # Turn grassroots to gold: let local leaders lead
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| − | # Sharpen your 10/10/10/20 = 50 Vision: push for improvements in local and state levels
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| − | # Change hearts and policy: the change sought is the new normal, the message connects.
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| − | # Reckon with adversarial allies: face intra-field challenges, put egos aside, focus on a common agenda
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| − | # Break from business as usual: work with sympathetic businesses to change internal policies
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| − | # Be leaderful: find balance between “leaderless” and “leader-led”, work through networks and systems and be organized.
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| − | Understanding the different dynamics of human society and how to identify eight levels of thinking models that are demonstrated by individuals, organizations and societies will help us develop approaches to effecting change and solving people problems. See:
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| − | == Spiral Dynamics, Leadership and Change ==
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| − | [https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/204687.Spiral_Dynamics Spiral Dynamics: mastering values, leadership, and change] – Beck & Cowan, Blackwell Publishing, 1996. See [https://spiraldynamics.org/ https://spiraldynamics.org/] for more info and resources. See summary at [http://www.ignaciodarnaude.com/espiritualismo/Beck-Cowan,Spiral%20Dynamic-2.htm http://www.ignaciodarnaude.com/espiritualismo/Beck-Cowan,Spiral%20Dynamic-2.htm]
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| − | == Tipping Points for Social Change ==
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| − | If reported societal tipping points exist, we can get an understanding of the effort needed.
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| − | Recent research from University of Pennsylvania suggests 25% of participants need to be on board before large scale social change happens. See Damon Centola, 7 June 2018
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| − | [https://www.asc.upenn.edu/news-events/news/research-finds-tipping-point-large-scale-social-change https://www.asc.upenn.edu/news-events/news/research-finds-tipping-point-large-scale-social-change]
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| − | Then there’s the 3.5% rule (to topple dictators for example) discussed in ''My Talk at TEDxBoulder: Civil Resistance and the “3.5% Rule”,'' 4 Nov 2013, see:
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| − | [https://rationalinsurgent.com/2013/11/04/my-talk-at-tedxboulder-civil-resistance-and-the-3-5-rule/ https://rationalinsurgent.com/2013/11/04/my-talk-at-tedxboulder-civil-resistance-and-the-3-5-rule/]
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| − | == Brain Biases that Get in the Way ==
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| − | Changing minds is hard as King reports tell us:
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| − | ''“Cognitive biases that ensured our initial survival now make it difficult to address long-term challenges that threaten our existence, like climate change.” - Matthew Wilburn King, 8 March 2019:''
| + | Bendell raises the specter of how to adapt… |
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| − | The original report is at: [http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190304-human-evolution-means-we-can-tackle-climate-change http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190304-human-evolution-means-we-can-tackle-climate-change]
| + | : ''the deep adaptation agenda of resilience, relinquishment and restoration can be a useful framework for community dialogue in the face of climate change. Resilience asks us “how do we keep what we really want to keep?” Relinquishment asks us “what do we need to let go of in order to not make matters worse?” Restoration asks us “what can we bring back to help us with the coming difficulties and tragedies?'' |
