Resilience Helps Us Get Through
Contents
- 1 Why is it 350?
- 2 The Origin of the 12 Year Timeline
- 3 Resilience Proposals
- 4 Project Drawdown and Available Technology
- 5 Clean Disruption & Cost Curves
- 6 Effecting Social Change
- 7 Training & Simulation
- 8 Volunteering Skills
- 9 Social Discount Rates
- 10 Television & Video
- 11 Other Online Resources
- 12 Newsletters
Why is it 350?
- Main article:Why is it 350?
In 2008, climate scientists at the NASA Goddard Institute proposed that global policies should have an initial target for atmospheric CO2 of 350 ppm. They note that the optimum CO2 level for maintaining a planet similar to that on which civilization developed is likely to be less than 350 ppm, but a 350 ppm target already reveals that dramatic policy changes are needed urgently. By the time such fundamental changes are achieved, knowledge will exist to help fine-tune the target CO2.
The Origin of the 12 Year Timeline
The 12 years in which we have to act started in October 2018. From Inside Climate News Aug 27, 2019
“The number began drawing attention in 2018, when the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report describing what it would take to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris climate agreement. The report explained that countries would have to cut their anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, such as from power plants and vehicles, to net zero by around 2050. To reach that goal, it said, CO2 emissions would have to start dropping "well before 2030" and be on a path to fall by about 45 percent by around 2030 (12 years away at that time).”
Resilience Proposals
Read the paper:
- “Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy” – Jem Bendell – an occasional paper from the Institute of Leadership and Sustainability (IFLAS) at the University of Cumbria, UK – July 2018. Prof.
Bendell raises the specter of how to adapt…
- “the deep adaptation agenda of resilience, relinquishment and restoration can be a useful framework for community dialogue in the face of climate change. Resilience asks us “how do we keep what we really want to keep?” Relinquishment asks us “what do we need to let go of in order to not make matters worse?” Restoration asks us “what can we bring back to help us with the coming difficulties and tragedies?”
Project Drawdown and Available Technology
“The 100 most substantive solutions to reverse global warming, based on meticulous research by leading scientists and policymakers around the world“
- "Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming" – ed Paul Hawken – Penguin Books – Apr 2017.
But how we manage investments has an effect too, see:
- "Did Project Drawdown miss a crucial climate solution?" – GreenBiz, Sasja Beslik – March 2018
Land Management issues are also important, see:
- "This Land is Our Land: The Struggle for a New Commonwealth" - Jedediah Purdue - Princeton University Press – Sept 2019
Clean Disruption & Cost Curves
A YouTube presentation by Tony Soba presented by the Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES) shows how cost curves will drive transition to Electric Vehicles and solar power + storage for most energy needs, see;
- https://youtu.be/2b3ttqYDwF0 Published on Jun 9, 2017
Stanford University futurist Tony Seba spent the last decades studying technological disruptions. He argues that the Electric Vehicle, battery storage, and solar power, along with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process which will wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade. TonySeba.com – RethinkX.com
He is the author of several books, including most recently “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030”, and “Solar Trillions: 7 Market and Investment Opportunities in the Emerging Clean-Energy Economy”
Tony Soba spoke in Boulder, Colorado, where he was awarded the 2017 Sunshine Award by Clean Energy Action.
Effecting Social Change
Succeeding Social Movements
Making a change isn’t easy, so understanding important factors as described in Crutchfield's book can be important:
- How Change Happens – Why Some Social Movements Succeed While Others Don’t – Leslie Crutchfield, Wiley, 2018. .
Briefly the six factors are:
- Turn grassroots to gold: let local leaders lead
- Sharpen your 10/10/10/20 = 50 Vision: push for improvements in local and state levels
- Change hearts and policy: the change sought is the new normal, the message connects.
- Reckon with adversarial allies: face intra-field challenges, put egos aside, focus on a common agenda
- Break from business as usual: work with sympathetic businesses to change internal policies
- Be leaderful: find balance between “leaderless” and “leader-led”, work through networks and systems and be organized.
Spiral Dynamics, Leadership and Change
Understanding the different dynamics of human society and how to identify eight levels of thinking models that are demonstrated by individuals, organizations and societies will help us develop approaches to effecting change and solving people problems. See:
- Spiral Dynamics: mastering values, leadership, and change – Beck & Cowan, Blackwell Publishing, 1996.
See:
Tipping Points for Social Change
If reported societal tipping points exist, we can get an understanding of the effort needed.
Recent research from University of Pennsylvania suggests 25% of participants need to be on board before large scale social change happens. See Damon Centola, 7 June 2018
Then there’s the 3.5% rule (to topple dictators for example) discussed in My Talk at TEDxBoulder: Civil Resistance and the “3.5% Rule”, 4 Nov 2013, see:
Brain Biases that Get in the Way
Changing minds is hard as Matthew King reports in:
“Cognitive biases that ensured our initial survival now make it difficult to address long-term challenges that threaten our existence, like climate change.” - Matthew Wilburn King, 8 March 2019:
The original report is at:
Training & Simulation
Climate Interactive offers a suite of tools to help model policies and strategies to fight the climate crisis. These models EN-Roads, C-Roads and ALPS through a combination of games and workshops educate participant in systems shaping our world.
“As John Sterman says, “Research shows that showing people research doesn’t work,” so we create experiences for people to use our tools with their peers to enable deeper understanding of the systems shaping our world. This approach comes from MIT Sloan School of Management where these types of interactive exercises are used to train top business leaders. Our workshops and games have been used with a wide range of audiences from heads of state to middle school students.”
From the World Climate Simulation Game website:
“The World Climate Simulation is a role-playing exercise of the UN climate change negotiations for groups. It is unique in that it uses an interactive computer model to rapidly analyze the results of the mock-negotiations during the event. All the materials and tools for World Climate are available for free and many are available in multiple languages. We encourage you to organize a World Climate Simulation yourself.”
From the Climate Action Simulation Game website:
"The Climate Action Simulation is a highly interactive, role-playing game. It uses the En-ROADS simulation model to engage a wide range of participants in exploring key technology and policy solutions for addressing global warming. The game is conducted as a simulated emergency climate summit organized by the United Nations that convenes global stakeholders to establish a concrete plan that limits warming to Paris Agreement goals. This game is a fun format for large groups to explore climate change solutions and see what it would really take to address this global challenge."
Volunteering Skills
The power of good interpersonal skills can probably not be overstated. Some of us are blessed in these skills more than others. Being welcoming may be one of them. Hearing more about taking a skills inventory (perhaps a guided self-reflection) with the aim of doing better could be useful. Are there books on 'Becoming Charismatic'? A quick Google search found:
So there is lots of advice out there. Not sure on how to assess the quality tho'. This almost suggests we should find and assign the right person to do the volunteer engagement.
Social Discount Rates
What are they and what does it mean for climate crisis fighters?
From GRIST:
From Forbes:
From the Center for Climate and Energy Studies:
Television & Video
Peril and Promise: The Challenge of Climate Change is a public media initiative from WNET in New York reporting on the human impact of climate change, designed to provide context, scientifically sound information, and fact-based journalism to audiences across every platform of public media. It also focuses on stories of exciting new frontiers of scientific innovation in resilience, mitigation, and clean energy.
WNET (Thirteen) are producers of the PBS P&P series on the ‘Sinking Cities’ of Miami, London, New York and Tokyo. Many other stories are covered in ‘Original Features’ and segments of other shows.
7 of the Best TEDTalks on Climate Change from The Climate Reality Project, includes one from Greta Thurnberg.
CNBC Sustainable Energy has their own YouTube Channel which includes this video on organizations that want to make the world a more sustainable place:
“Why we're heading for a 'climate catastrophe” – BBC Newsnight
From the Years Project: https://theyearsproject.com/, a series of documentaries, Years of Living Dangerously, Season 1 Episode 1: Dry Season
Other Online Resources
Much good information at Global Climate Change, Vital Signs of the Planet from NASA:
Likewise from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
To help with discussions, from VOX, on May, 2019
The Unitarian Universalists for a Just Economic Community has some extensive materials as part of a Green New Deal workshop curriculum
See more on Messaging.
