The Problem

Background to the Crisis

The IPCC's '1.5 Degree Report' paints a dire picture that suggests we must fundamentally change the nature of society in the next 11 yrs 6 mo (mid 2019) See the following publications:

“Devastating UN Report: CO₂ Emissions Must Go to Zero By 2050 to Avoid Worst Effects of Climate Change”

“IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC” released in October 2018

“IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL)” released in August 2019

“IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” (pdf) released in September 2019

We nearly did something 30 years ago, see:

“Losing Earth”

but were thwarted in the 80’s by the API and the fossil fuel industry that paid a few climate denier/skeptics to write editorials to raise doubt and undermine support for any policies which would affect their bottom line, when in fact it had been pretty much settled science at the time. See:

“Losing Earth: A Recent History” - Nathan Rich – Macmillan – April 2019.

“An Exxon-Owned Firm Figured Out How to Curb CO2 in 1991” - Bloomberg – Dec 2019

But the media has been complacent too, see;

“The Media Are Complacent While the World Burns” - The Nation, Apr 2019, Mark Hertsgaard and Kyle Pope

Job One for Humanity has lots of general information at:

https://www.joboneforhumanity.org/

To learn more, read the not-for-late-night reading:

“The Uninhabitable Earth” – David Wallace-Wells – Penguin Random House – Feb 2019

perhaps summarized in;

“Facing Extinction” - Catherine Ingram website.

and an update:

“Climate Change Is Accelerating: ‘Things Are Getting Worse” - New York Times - Dec 2019

or:

“The End of Ice” – Dahr Jamail – The New Press – Jan 2019

Jamail uses the term ‘climate disruption’ a lot when he describes one man’s intimate experience with nature and the visible impact of climate change on glacial retreat, deforestation, coral reefs bleaching, etc.

or any of these:

"Falter: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?” – Bill McKibben – Henry Holt & Co – Apr 2019

“Storming The Wall: Climate Change, Migration and Homeland Security” – Todd Miller – Sept 2017

“This Civilisation Is Finished: Conversations on the End of Empire - And What Lies Beyond” – Rupert Read, Samuel Alexander - Simplicity Institute – May 2019

“On Fire: - The (Burning) Case for a Green New Deal” – Naomi Klein, - Simon & Schuster Sept. 2019

Then there is the report from Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) that predicts that a million species are currently (May 2019) threatened with extinction at:

Media Release: Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’

One story on what Exxon knew in 1982 but didn’t share;

“Exxon Predicted 2019’s Ominous CO₂ Milestone in 1982” - Gizmodo - May 2019

The Origin of the 12 Year Timeline

The 12 years in which we have to act started in October 2018. See:

"What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change'" (Now 11 Years) Really Mean? - Inside Climate News - Aug 27, 2019

"The number began drawing attention in 2018, when the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report describing what it would take to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris climate agreement. The report explained that countries would have to cut their anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, such as from power plants and vehicles, to net zero by around 2050. To reach that goal, it said, CO₂ emissions would have to start dropping "well before 2030" and be on a path to fall by about 45 percent by around 2030 (12 years away at that time)."

The Keeling Curve

From Scripps Institution of Oceanography:

“Scripps scientists measured a record level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: 415 parts per million, on Sunday, May 12, 2019. This daily record, the Keeling Curve, is considered the foundation of modern climate change research. Geochemist Charles David Keeling joined Scripps in 1956 and built a manometer and other equipment to isolate the carbon dioxide in air samples. In 1958, the average carbon dioxide concentration of the first measurement was 316.16 parts per million. In 2013, the CO₂ concentration surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in human history.”

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

Greenhouse Gasses (GHG)

Major Greenhouse Gasses can arise from a wide variety of sources, both natural and artificial.

• Refrigerants used in air conditioning systems, vehicular, residential and industrial.
• Methane Emissions come from fracking, oil production, permafrost melting, ocean methane hydrates, decomposition of wastes.
• Nitrous Oxide, N₂O, is a pollutant from agriculture and industry and additionally scrubs Ozone from the atmosphere.

For more information:

NOAA discussion on Greenhouse Gasses

Refrigerants

Working on cutting the use of refrigerants has been identified as the No. 1 solution in Project Drawdown. Refrigerants can have a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 2000 to 3000: CO₂ has a GWP of 1 by definition. More information is available under Drawdown Projects in New Mexico. Ironically, CO₂ can also be used as a refrigerant.

Methane Emissions

For background information see:

"What is methane and why does it matter" - Rocky Mountain Institute – January 8, 2020

NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center develops 3D Modeling of methane emissions world-wide

https://phys.org/news/2020-03-d-view-methane-tracks-sources.html - Ellen Gray – Mar 23, 2020:

Natural Sources

TODO

Artificial Sources

TODO

New Mexico's Problem

New Mexico has some of the worst clouds of methane emissions from oil & gas activities. Efforts are underway to develop rules for O&G wells.

Nitrous Oxide

TODO

Water Vapor

Water vapor itself, i.e. gaseous water, is also a weak green house gas. It really only becomes a problem with runaway global warming when the seas begin to evaporate, causing feedback and more global warming. This mechanism is believed to be behind Venus' high surface temperatures that melt lead. See:

Climate Change Connection

Impacts On Life As We Know It

Elements of Chaos

(list taken after Elements of Chaos in the Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells)

1. Heat Death (hyperthermia, heat stroke)
2. Hunger (food shortages and falling crop yields)
3. Drowning (rising seas and flooding)
4. Wildfire
5. ‘Natural’ Disasters (tornados, hurricanes)
6. Freshwater (glacial melting)
7. Oceans (pH, food chain)
8. Air Quality (fires)
9. Plagues
10. Economic Collapse
11. Conflict (wars)

Impacts on Mental Health

‘Overwhelming and terrifying’: the rise of climate anxiety - The Guardian, Feb 10, 2020

Impacts on Human Rights Issues (DRAFT)

We have attempted to look at the broad spectrum of Human Rights issues to evaluate how they may be impacted by the worst of the climate crisis. Primary impacts are a direct result of rising CO₂ levels driving temperature increases. Secondary impacts come about as a result of climate changes and the effect on human society. Tertiary impacts tend to cover how we respond to the effects of global warming.

Human Rights Issue	Possible Impacts of the Climate Crisis	Primary, Secondary, etc. Impact
Racial Discrimination, Racism	As solutions are implemented via Industrial and Environmental Services Development they are likely to be located next to communities of color and the disadvantaged (the poor).	Secondary
Clean Air and Water	Global warming affects water supplies via snow pack depletion, etc.	Primary
Domestic abuse	Global warming will stress society in a number of ways, via food shortages, water shortages and exacerbated ‘natural’ disasters. Tempers are more likely to flare and violence likely to increase.	Secondary
Drug trafficking	Funds to fight the effects of the climate crisis will dominate, reducing funds available to fight drug trafficking.	Secondary
Education	Funds to fight the effects of the climate crisis will dominate, reducing funds available to improve education.	Secondary
Freedom of religion	Global warming will stress society in a number of ways with divisive and discriminatory practices putting blame on ethnic and religious groups exacerbating religious intolerance.	Secondary
Gun Violence/Control	Global warming will stress society in a number of ways, tempers will flare and disputes will result more frequently with gun violence. Ultimately, as society breaks down, gangs and militia will impose local governance with the power of the gun.	Secondary
Human trafficking	Human Trafficking will be overshadowed by social unrest triggered by global warming.	Tertiary
Hunger/Famine	Food shortages and higher prices will expand the number of disadvantaged that go hungry. Large scale hunger (famine) will cause civil unrest and potentially civil wars.	Secondary
Immigration	As the climate warms, more places will become intolerably hot, under water or devasted by ‘natural’ disasters. Human migration away from these areas will put pressure on neighboring more livable areas and generate social unrest and potentially civil wars.	Primary
Income inequality	Those with resources will be better able to respond to the worst effects of the climate crisis, being more mobile they can escape areas most affected. Gated communities in cooler climes will become targets of social unrest.	Primary
LGBTQ	LGBTQ inequalities will be overshadowed by social unrest triggered by global warming	Tertiary
Net Neutrality	Net Neutrality issues will be overshadowed by social unrest triggered by global warming	Tertiary
Poverty	The lack of resources among the poor will limit their ability to respond to global warming resulting in social unrest.	Primary
Prison Reform	Prison populations could explode as global warming disenfranchises the poor and racial minorities and generating social unrest. Generally tho’, prisons will not be able to accommodate a rising ‘criminal’ class. Either laws will be relaxed or prison crowding will become critical.	Tertiary
Refugees	See immigration.	Primary
Universal Health Care	Health Care inequalities will be overshadowed by social unrest triggered by global warming	Tertiary
Voting	Voting suppression and inequalities will be overshadowed by social unrest triggered by global warming	Tertiary
Women's Health and abortion	Women’s Health inequalities will be overshadowed by social unrest triggered by global warming	Tertiary

Some of the above Social Justice Issues will probably be lost in the crisis. Saving the planet from the worst effects of global warming will be necessary to make progress in these social justice issues.